UK poverty set to rise

 An independent study by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) estimates that the coalition government reforms will lead to an increase in both child and adult poverty. Child and Working-Age Poverty from 2010 to 2013 examines both relative and absolute poverty, taking the definitions that an individual is in relative income poverty in a particular year if their household income is less than 60 per cent of the national median household income in that year and an individual is in absolute income poverty in a particular year if their household income in that year is less than 60 per cent of the 2010–11 national median (in real terms). The study, which is funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, forecasts that among all children and working-age individuals, there will be a rise in relative poverty of about 800,000 and a rise in absolute poverty of about 900,000 between 2010–11 and 2013–14.

This conclusion is at odds with the coalition government’s claim that its reforms will not have a ‘measurable’ impact on child poverty and is accounted for by the fact that the IFS have modelled the government’s planned reforms to Local Housing Allowance whereas the Treasury did not. The reason the coalition government’s reforms will do more to increase absolute rather than relative poverty in 2013–14 is that they will reduce median income; hence the relative poverty line in 2013–14 will be lower (see Income threshold approach).

PSE 2011 is a major collaboration between the University of Bristol, Heriot-Watt University, The Open University, Queen's University Belfast, University of Glasgow and the University of York working with the National Centre for Social Research and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.